[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (09 October 26) issued 0156 UT on 09 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri Oct 9 12:56:34 AEDT 2026

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 09 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (02 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER)
Date     02    03    04    05    06    07    08
10cm     92    93    92   100   113   114   119
AFr       2     8    21    19     8     4  (  6)
Aaus      1     4    22    13     9     3  (  4)
T        61    58    64    38    50    52    57

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

02 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

03 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

04 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G1
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

05 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 1848UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 05 Oct, a weak (11nT) impulse 
was observed at 1356UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

06 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.4 at 0610UT, an M1.2 at 0758UT, 
              and an M1.9 at 0805UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

07 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Oct 
Solar:        R2, with an M6.7 at 1548UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (09 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER)
Solar: 
Solar flare activity is forecast to be at the R1-R2 level for the first half of
the 
week due to Active Region 4549. This will decrease to R0 with a chance of R1 by
the
end of the week as this region rotates off the disk.

Geomagnetic:  
G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are forecast for 09-Oct due to a coronal mass
ejection
impact. G0-G1 conditions are forecast for 10-Oct due to coronal hole high speed 
wind stream effects. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are forecast on 11-Oct due to
a 
second coronal mass ejection as well as ongoing high speed wind stream effects.
G0 with a chance of G1 is forecast for 12-Oct due to the ongoing CME impact and 
high speed wind stream effects. G0 is forecast over 13-15 Oct.

Frequencies:  
Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region are forecast to be 
depressed by up to 15% over 09-11 Oct due to forecast geomagnetic activity. MUFs
are forecast to return to near predicted monthly values from 12-15 Oct.
Shortwave
fadeouts are probable early in the week.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au