[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (16 October 26) issued 0245 UT on 16 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 16 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (09 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER)
Date     09    10    11    12    13    14    15
10cm    121   126   122   123   136   123   126
AFr      10    27    10     7    12     9  (  8)
Aaus      6    32    11     4     8     7  (  8)
T        65    37    -3    47    59    50    57

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

09 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.3 at 1409UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Oct 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.2 at 1413UT, and an M6.4 at 1510UT
Geomagnetic:  G2
In the BOM magnetometer data for 10 Oct, a moderate (68nT) impulse 
was observed at 1513UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

12 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 13 Oct, a weak (13nT) impulse 
was observed at 0105UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (16 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER)
Solar: 
Solar flare activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels this week,
primarily due to the size and complexity of active region 4551. This
region is expected to rotate over the western limb on UT day 22-Oct.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 planetary geomagnetic conditions are expected this week, though 
geomagnetic conditions may become mildly elevated on 19-Oct due to
coronal hole high-speed wind stream effects. 

Frequencies:  
Maximum Usable Frequencies in the Australian region are forecast to
be near predicted monthly values for the entirety of the week.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible. 

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au