[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (13 September 24) issued 0136 UT on 13 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri Sep 13 11:36:08 AEST 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 13 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (06 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER)
Date     06    07    08    09    10    11    12
10cm    249   222   228   215   205   207   201
AFr       8     9    19     9     7     8  ( 40)
Aaus      3     3     5     6     6     6  ( 34)
T       163   155   161   164   166   168   151

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

06 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25-40% during local night and after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

07 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.6 at 0750UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 105% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

08 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.5 at 1531UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30-35% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

09 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 0314UT, an M1.2 at 0533UT, 
              an M1.8 at 0545UT, an M1.0 at 0838UT, an M1.5 at 
              0851UT, and an M3.4 at 1708UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-45%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

10 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 0018UT, an M1.6 at 1547UT, 
              and an M1.0 at 2350UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 2350UT, an M1.8 at 1236UT, 
              an M1.4 at 1518UT, an M1.6 at 1726UT, and an M2.0 
              at 1752UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 11 Sep, a weak (11nT) impulse 
was observed at 1524UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30-35% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

12 Sep 
Solar:        R3, with an M5.0 at 0012UT, an M1.1 at 0404UT, 
              an M1.2 at 0432UT, an M2.7 at 0618UT, an X1.3 at 
              0944UT, an M1.2 at 1322UT, an M6.8 at 1443UT, and 
              an M1.9 at 2219UT
Geomagnetic:  G2
In the BOM magnetometer data for 12 Sep, a weak (17nT) impulse 
was observed at 0347UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (13 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at the R2 level this week, with a chance of R3.

Geomagnetic:  
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on UT day 13-Sep as CME effects abate.
G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 14-Sep due to the arrival of a CME 
first observed on 11-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for the
remainder
of the week.

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced this week.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au