[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (20 September 24) issued 0123 UT on 20 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 20 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (13 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER)
Date     13    14    15    16    17    18    19
10cm    186   172   173   170   165   163   161
AFr      22    22    16    19    39    10  ( 15)
Aaus     19    11    11    13    27     8  ( 11)
T       122   120   125   127   129   147   152

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

13 Sep 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.6 at 0137UT, an M2.1 at 0434UT, 
              an M1.8 at 0531UT, an M5.4 at 0656UT, an M1.2 at 
              1509UT, an M1.4 at 1756UT, and an M1.1 at 2049UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

14 Sep 
Solar:        R3, with an M1.0 at 0433UT, an M3.0 at 0741UT, 
              and an X4.5 at 1529UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

15 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 16 Sep, a weak (9nT) impulse 
was observed at 0408UT and a weak (11nT) impulse was observed 
at 2329UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G1
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

18 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

19 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G1
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (20 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER)
Solar: 
R0-R1 activity expected over the week 20-26 Sep.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected
on 20-Sep due to waning CME and coronal hole high speed wind 
stream effects. G0 conditions are expected for 21-24 Sep. G0 
conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on 25-26 Sep due 
to possible coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% 
enhanced for the week of 20-26 Sep.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au