[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (11 October 24) issued 0116 UT on 11 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri Oct 11 12:16:53 AEDT 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 11 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (04 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER)
Date     04    05    06    07    08    09    10
10cm    291   277   265   277   225   220   216
AFr       6     8    13    33    29    15  ( 44)
Aaus      5     4    12    29    20    13  ( 50)
T       156   162   161   128   101   156   130

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

04 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 2328UT, an M4.0 at 0455UT, 
              an M1.1 at 0521UT, an M1.2 at 1103UT, an M1.2 at 
              2105UT, and an M1.2 at 2211UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 2211UT, an M1.0 at 0012UT, 
              an M1.0 at 0411UT, an M1.4 at 0828UT, an M1.1 at 
              2041UT, and an M2.4 at 2320UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.4 at 2320UT, an M1.0 at 0147UT, 
              an M1.3 at 1521UT, an M1.1 at 1645UT, an M1.4 at 
              1859UT, and an M1.5 at 2121UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 06 Oct, a weak (13nT) impulse 
was observed at 0740UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Oct 
Solar:        R3, with an M1.3 at 1839UT, and an X2.1 at 1913UT
Geomagnetic:  G1
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

08 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 0851UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

09 Oct 
Solar:        R3, with an X1.8 at 0156UT, an M2.1 at 0426UT, 
              an M1.3 at 0515UT, an X1.4 at 1547UT, and an M7.7 
              at 2312UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

10 Oct 
Solar:        R2, with an M7.7 at 2312UT, an M1.3 at 1201UT, 
              an M1.0 at 1700UT, and an M3.0 at 2231UT
Geomagnetic:  G3
In the BOM magnetometer data for 10 Oct, a moderate (73nT) impulse 
was observed at 1515UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

2. FORECAST (11 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels this week. No significant
returning regions are expected. 

Geomagnetic:  
G4 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 11-Oct, with a chance of G5 due to
ongoing CME effects. G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 12-Oct, with a
chance of G3 as CME effects abate. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on
13-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for the remainder of the week.

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be depressed 20 to 40% on 11-Oct due to geomagnetic
activity.
MUFs are expected to recover over 12-13 Oct and remain near predicted monthly
values
on other days.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au