[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (18 October 24) issued 0045 UT on 18 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri Oct 18 11:45:26 AEDT 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 18 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (11 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER)
Date     11    12    13    14    15    16    17
10cm    214   214   195   182   172   168   174
AFr      68    16     3     6     9    11  (  8)
Aaus     53    19     2     5    11    10  (  4)
T        56   146   123   147   152   143   141

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

11 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M3.0 at 2231UT, an M1.4 at 1605UT, 
              an M2.1 at 1633UT, and an M1.0 at 2325UT
Geomagnetic:  G3
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 30-50%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 50% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
      Absorption observed early in UT day.

12 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 2325UT
Geomagnetic:  G1
In the BOM magnetometer data for 12 Oct, a weak (9nT) impulse 
was observed at 1715UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Initially enhanced 25% then near predicted monthly values.
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

13 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M3.4 at 0018UT, and an M1.8 at 
              1337UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

15 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.9 at 0213UT, an M1.3 at 1006UT, 
              and an M1.7 at 1818UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M3.0 at 0319UT, an M3.7 at 0323UT, 
              an M2.8 at 0515UT, an M1.5 at 1328UT, and an M1.3 
              at 1442UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      15% depressed during local day at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 0223UT, and an M2.4 at 
              0505UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Comment:A severe geomagnetic disturbance was observed over 10 and 11-Oct due to
a CME arrival. 
Predominately planetary G4 conditions were observed from 10/1500UT until
11/0900UT. 
One period of planetary G5 was observed 10/2100-2400UT (US SWPC planetary Kp
index 
reached 8 and 2/3 or 9-). This was the strongest disturbance observed during the

week and was associated with R3 (X1.8) flare activity on 09-Oct. In the
Australian region 
geomagnetic activity was at G3 on 10-Oct and 11-Oct, and at G1 briefly on 12-Oct
for 
one K-index period.

The geomagnetic storm activity over 10-11 Oct moderately (30% depression in
MUFs) 
to severely (50% depression in MUFS) impacted HF communications in the
Australian 
region from late in the UT day on 10-Oct and during the local day on 11-Oct.

Increased ionospheric absorption was observed on 09-10 Oct in the polar regions
due to an S3 solar radiation storm associated with the X1.8 flare and CME
observed 
on 09-Oct. 

2. FORECAST (18 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER)
Solar: 
R1,chance R2. Two smaller solar regions AR3856 and AR3860
have shown growth in the past 24 hours.

Geomagnetic:  
G0, chance G1 on 18-19 Oct and 21-Oct.   G0 on other days.

Frequencies:  
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the southern Australian
region may be briefly depressed after local dawn on 19 Oct,  21-22 Oct
MUFs near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on other days.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au