[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (04 October 24) issued 0054 UT on 04 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri Oct 4 10:54:29 AEST 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 04 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (27 SEPTEMBER - 03 OCTOBER)
Date     27    28    29    30    01    02    03
10cm    186   195   197   214   245   275   312
AFr       5     5    17     9     5     6  ( 11)
Aaus      2     6    10     6     5     5  (  5)
T       137   139   145   154   160   151   152

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

27 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.4 at 2312UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 1253UT, and an M1.7 at 
              1424UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 Oct 
Solar:        R3, with an M7.6 at 0000UT, an M1.0 at 1452UT, 
              an M1.5 at 1918UT, and an X7.1 at 2220UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

02 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 0239UT, an M1.0 at 0516UT, 
	      an M3.6 at 0538UT, an M1.1 at 0624UT, an M3.2 at 1338UT, 
              an M1.4 at 2016UT, and an M3.2 at 2049UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

03 Oct 
Solar:        R3, with an M1.1 at 0234UT, an M1.5 at 0828UT, 
              and an X9.0 at 1218UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (04 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER)
Solar: 
R1-R2 level flaring is expected for the week of 04-10 Oct, with
a chance of isolated R3-R4 events due to AR3844 and AR2842
which are expected to persist on the visible disk for the
entire week.

Geomagnetic:  
G3 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G4 are expected on
04-05 Oct due to multiple expected CME impacts. G1-G2 conditions
are expected on 06-Oct and G0 conditions with a chance of G1 are 
expected on 07-08 Oct as CME impact effects wane. G0 conditions
are expected on 09-10 Oct. 

Frequencies:  
MUF depressions of up to 15% are expected over 04-06 Oct due to
anticipated geomagnetic activity, with greater depressions expected
at higher latitudes. MUFs are expected to recover towards predicted
monthly values for the remainder of the week, with enhancements of
up to 15% expected over 08-10 Oct.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au