[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (15 November 24) issued 0144 UT on 15 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri Nov 15 12:44:05 AEDT 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 15 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (08 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER)
Date     08    09    10    11    12    13    14
10cm    231   221   231   182   172   150   147
AFr       7    24    15     7     4     5  (  9)
Aaus     13    20    15     8     3     4  (  5)
T       152   120    93    73   131   155   157

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

08 Nov 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.5 at 0301UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by up to 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Nov 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 2050UT
Geomagnetic:  G1
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Learmonth depressed 30-40% early in UT day.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Perth depressed 30-40% early in UT day.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn this morning.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

10 Nov 
Solar:        R2, with an M4.2 at 0015UT, an M9.4 at 1206UT, 
              and an M4.9 at 2021UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

11 Nov 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 0527UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Nov 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Nov 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 0022UT, and an M1.7 at 
              1708UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Nov 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Comment: The R2 M9.4 flare on 10-Nov was impulsive and
not associated with a coronal mass ejection. An isolated period
of G1 was observed on 09-Nov in the Australian regional geomagnetic 
field in association with mildly southward interplanetary magnetic field 
conditions which induced a general mild increase in geomagnetic activity 
over 09-10 Nov. Depressed ionospheric conditions were observed from 
late on 10-Nov and on 11-Nov in the Australian region.

2. FORECAST (15 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER)
Solar: 
R0-R1. Solar region AR3889 is the only region of significance 
currently on the solar disk and appears to be in decline. A previously
flaring solar region was due back to the southeast solar limb
on 18-Nov but GONG farside imagery appears to indicate that this
region has decayed on its far side transit.

Geomagnetic:  
G0,chance of G1 on 15-Nov due to a coronal hole wind stream. Another
coronal hole wind stream may induce G1 periods 17-18 Nov. G0 on other days.

Frequencies:  
Possible brief mild depressions on 16-Nov and 18-Nov for the southern
Australian region. MUFs generally near predicted monthly values on 
other days.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au