[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (22 November 24) issued 0038 UT on 22 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 22 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (15 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER)
Date     15    16    17    18    19    20    21
10cm    149   140   146   165   157   163   166
AFr      10     8     6     3     6     8  (  5)
Aaus      8     2     5     4     7     8  (  8)
T       130   100   121   142   129   105   113

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

15 Nov 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 0147UT, and an M1.0 at 
              1218UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

16 Nov 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.6 at 0137UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Nov 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Nov 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 0522UT, an M1.7 at 0732UT, 
              an M1.2 at 0757UT, an M2.5 at 1058UT, an M1.6 at 
              1112UT, an M3.7 at 1253UT, an M1.8 at 1749UT, an 
              M1.8 at 1904UT, an M2.0 at 1915UT, and an M1.1 
              at 2051UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Nov 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 0000UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Nov 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 1949UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

21 Nov 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

 
2. FORECAST (22 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be initially at R0-R1 levels this week.
Previously flare active regions AR3878 and AR3883 may return to the 
visible disk on 23 and 27-Nov respectively. Both of these regions 
produced R3 level flares on their previous rotation. Should these 
regions return, solar activity may increase to R2-R3 levels. 

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a slight chance of G1 on
22 and 23-Nov. 

Frequencies:  
MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible. 

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au