[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (24 May 24) issued 0129 UT on 24 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 24 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (17 MAY - 23 MAY)
Date     17    18    19    20    21    22    23
10cm    204   194   201   200   191   196   176
AFr      16    14    10    10     8     5  (  6)
Aaus     16     8     5     5     5     1  (  4)
T       137   156   149   146   132   126   131

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

17 May 
Solar:        R2, with an M7.2 at 2108UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 17 May, a weak (10nT) impulse 
was observed at 1329UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 May 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-55% over the UT day.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

19 May 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.9 at 1344UT, an M2.5 at 1756UT, 
              and an M1.6 at 2159UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 May 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

21 May 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.9 at 1931UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 May 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.5 at 0313UT, an M2.3 at 0404UT, 
              and an M1.2 at 1405UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 May 
Solar:        R1, with an M4.2 at 0216UT, an M1.7 at 0429UT, 
              an M1.0 at 1008UT, an M2.5 at 1320UT, and an M1.0 
              at 1558UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (24 MAY - 30 MAY)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 24-26 May,
with a chance of R2. Solar activity may increase to R2-R3 levels
if AR3663 and AR3664 return to the visible disk. These regions are
expected to return on 24 and 27-May respectively. 

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected this week, with a chance of
G1 on 24-May.

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
this week. Shortwave fadeouts are possible, tending to probable later
in the week. 


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au