[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (31 May 24) issued 0057 UT on 31 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[ASWFC]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 31 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (24 MAY - 30 MAY)
Date     24    25    26    27    28    29    30
10cm    163   152   156   170   166   171   175
AFr      11     6    10     9     7    10  (  6)
Aaus      5     2     5     4     3     3  (  4)
T       140   123   115   107   109   100   103

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

24 May 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.4 at 0706UT, an M1.0 at 0801UT, 
              an M1.3 at 0824UT, and an M1.4 at 2025UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

25 May 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 May 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced during local day.
      Depressed by 15-20% at times during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

27 May 
Solar:        R3, with an X2.9 at 0708UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

28 May 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 May 
Solar:        R3, with an M1.3 at 0106UT, an M1.4 at 0645UT, 
              an M1.8 at 1121UT, an M2.5 at 1255UT, and an X1.4 
              at 1437UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 May 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 0713UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (31 MAY - 06 JUNE)
Solar: 
R1-R2, chance R3 due to solar region AR3697 in the southeast 
quadrant of the solar disk. The other region of recent significance
in the northern solar hemisphere, AR3691, has started to decay.
There is an increased risk of CME events from mid week, dependant 
on the evolution of AR3697. as it rotates to a more geoeffective 
solar longitude.

Geomagnetic:  
G0, chance G1 conditions on 1-Jun due to a glancing blow from a recent
predominately eastward directed CME associated with the X1.4 flare on 29-May. 
G0 on other days. 

Frequencies:  
MUFs near predicted monthly values during the week. There is a
chance for brief post dawn ionospheric depressions of 15% on 02-Jun
in the southern Australian region if mild geomagnetic activity 
eventuates on 01-Jun.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au