[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (17 May 24) issued 0054 UT on 17 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri May 17 10:54:04 EST 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 17 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (10 MAY - 16 MAY)
Date     10    11    12    13    14    15    16
10cm    223   214   222   215   220   216   207
AFr      80     0    31    24     8    10  ( 19)
Aaus     50   127    26    12     4     5  ( 15)
T       121   113   143   125   124   123   136

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

10 May 
Solar:        R3, with an M2.7 at 2241UT, an M1.6 at 2351UT, 
              an M1.4 at 0329UT, an M1.3 at 0624UT, an X3.9 at 
              0654UT, an M5.9 at 1411UT, an M1.2 at 1741UT, an 
              M1.1 at 1832UT, an M1.8 at 1850UT, and an M3.8 
              at 2108UT
Geomagnetic:  G3
In the BOM magnetometer data for 10 May, a moderate (51nT) impulse 
was observed at 1706UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

11 May 
Solar:        R3, with an M1.0 at 0105UT, an X5.8 at 0123UT, 
              an M1.2 at 0743UT, an M1.7 at 0915UT, an M3.1 at 
              1018UT, an X1.5 at 1144UT, and an M1.2 at 2041UT
Geomagnetic:  G4
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 55% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

12 May 
Solar:        R3, with an M3.2 at 0045UT, an M2.4 at 0552UT, 
              an M1.6 at 1241UT, an M1.0 at 1347UT, an M1.5 at 
              1356UT, an X1.0 at 1626UT, an M4.8 at 2032UT, an 
              M1.1 at 2206UT, and an M1.0 at 2310UT
Geomagnetic:  G2
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 120% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 35% over the UT day. 
      Absorption observed at times.

13 May 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.2 at 0133UT, an M1.2 at 0820UT, 
              an M6.6 at 0944UT, an M1.4 at 0829UT, an M3.7 at 
              1311UT, an M1.0 at 1747UT, and an M1.5 at 2159UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

14 May 
Solar:        R3, with an X1.7 at 0209UT, an X1.2 at 1255UT, 
              an X8.7 at 1651UT, and an M4.4 at 1738UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

15 May 
Solar:        R3, with an M2.9 at 1406UT, an M3.2 at 1417UT, 
              an X3.4 at 0837UT, and an X2.9 at 1438UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

16 May 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 0804UT
Geomagnetic:  G1
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Comment:Planetary (Kp) G5 storm observed over 10-11 May reaching G4 in
the Australian (KAus) region geomagnetic field. A strong shock in the 
solar wind was observed 10/1637UT and extreme geomagnetic storm
conditions were then observed. The estimated planetary A index (Ap)
reached 273 on 11-May and the Australian region Dst fell to -514 on 
this day. The geomagnetic activity was induced by several CMEs that 
left the Sun over 8-9 May. On 11-May the Australian regional 
ionosphere was depressed 50% during the local day and enhanced
by up to 40% during the local night, resulting in an near average overall
T index for the day. The X8.7 flare on 14-May is the largest
so far for this cycle. Two large active solar regions that produced
strong and frequent flare activity over the past two weeks
are due to return to the south east solar limb on 24-May and 27-May.

2. FORECAST (17 MAY - 23 MAY)
Solar:
R1-R2, chance R3. A new solar region has rotated onto the
solar disk producing an R3 flare just prior to rotating on.

Geomagnetic:  
27 day recurrence patterns suggest G0 conditions for the week. 
Increasing chance for CME disturbances later in the week.

Frequencies:  
MUFs near predicted monthly values. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts probable.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au