[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (10 May 24) issued 0404 UT on 10 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri May 10 14:04:18 EST 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 10 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (03 MAY - 09 MAY)
Date     03    04    05    06    07    08    09
10cm    156   167   177   171   204   227   233
AFr      16     5    12    13     6    10  (  9)
Aaus      5     3     6    10     4     4  (  2)
T       101    87   106   117   109   116   111

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

03 May 
Solar:        R3, with an M2.7 at 0015UT, an X1.6 at 0222UT, 
              an M4.5 at 0811UT, an M1.2 at 2243UT, and an M2.4 
              at 2330UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 40% over the UT day.

04 May 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.2 at 2243UT, an M2.4 at 2330UT, 
              an M1.6 at 0036UT, an M9.1 at 0619UT, an M1.5 at 
              0707UT, an M1.3 at 1820UT, an M3.2 at 2237UT, an 
              M6.6 at 2342UT, and an M9.1 at 2348UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 May 
Solar:        R3, with an M3.2 at 2237UT, an M6.6 at 2342UT, 
              an M9.1 at 2348UT, an X1.3 at 0601UT, an M1.2 at 
              0816UT, an M2.3 at 0938UT, an M7.4 at 1000UT, an 
              X1.2 at 1154UT, an M1.3 at 1447UT, an M2.2 at 1539UT, 
              an M1.0 at 1840UT, and an M1.3 at 1952UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 May 
Solar:        R3, with an M1.6 at 0106UT, an M1.3 at 0528UT, 
              an X4.5 at 0635UT, an M1.5 at 0959UT, an M1.2 at 
              2148UT, and an M4.3 at 2227UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

07 May 
Solar:        R2, with an M4.3 at 2227UT, an M5.1 at 0616UT, 
              an M1.3 at 0823UT, an M2.4 at 1147UT, an M1.5 at 
              1254UT, an M8.2 at 1630UT, an M2.1 at 2022UT, and 
              an M3.3 at 2126UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

08 May 
Solar:        R3, with an X1.0 at 0141UT, an M7.9 at 1753UT, 
              and an X1.0 at 2141UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 May 
Solar:        R3, with an M4.0 at 0317UT, an M4.5 at 0332UT, 
              an X2.2 at 0914UT, an X1.1 at 1744UT, an M1.0 at 
              2121UT, an M2.7 at 2241UT, and an M1.6 at 2351UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (10 MAY - 16 MAY)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at R2-R3 levels, decreasing to R1-R2
levels later in the week. 

Geomagnetic:  
G4 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 10-May, decreasing to G3 with
a chance of G4 on 11-May. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 12-May.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for the remainder of the week. 

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be depressed by 20-40% over 10-12 May due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to recover to near predicted monthly
values over the remainder of the week.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au