[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (03 May 24) issued 0046 UT on 03 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 03 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (26 APRIL - 02 MAY)
Date     26    27    28    29    30    01    02
10cm    153   153   140   138   130   135   142
AFr      11    12     7     7    10    10  ( 24)
Aaus     10     6     2     3     9     4  ( 21)
T       152   134   127   119   103   123   108

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

26 Apr 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

27 Apr 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.1 at 1235UT, and an M3.1 at 
              2140UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

28 Apr 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Apr 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.5 at 0048UT, and an M3.7 at 
              0111UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Apr 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.6 at 0114UT, an M1.2 at 1511UT, 
              an M1.3 at 1633UT, and an M9.5 at 2346UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 30 Apr, a weak (10nT) impulse 
was observed at 1225UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 May 
Solar:        R1 with an M1.8 at 1432UT, 
              and an M1.8 at 2231UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

02 May 
Solar:        R1 with an M1.0 at 0217UT, 
              and an M2.7 at 2057UT
Geomagnetic:  G1
In the BOM magnetometer data for 02 May, a weak (12nT) impulse 
was observed at 1408UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Comment: G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 02-May. The planetary
Kp geomagnetic index reached G3 for two periods 02/15-21UT. The
geomagnetic storm activity followed an unexpected arrival of
a CME 02/1315UT. The southern Australian regional ionosphere
became depressed after local dawn on 03-May.
 
2. FORECAST (03 MAY - 09 MAY)
Solar: 
R1 activity early in week. Two solar regions have been 
recently producing R1 flares.

Geomagnetic: 
G1, chance G2 on 03-May. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to decline over 03-May. G0 on other days.

Frequencies:  
Depressed 20-30% after local dawn on 3 May for the 
southern Australian region. Northern Australian region
MUFs expected to remain near normal. MUFs are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values on other days.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au