[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (23 August 24) issued 0043 UT on 23 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri Aug 23 10:43:51 AEST 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 23 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (16 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST)
Date     16    17    18    19    20    21    22
10cm    225   230   231   239   244   239   231
AFr      11    24    15    11     9     8  (  9)
Aaus      7    13     9     6     6     4  (  4)
T       170   158   181   160   172   162   155

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

16 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.3 at 1324UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.6 at 1033UT, an M1.1 at 1144UT, 
              and an M1.1 at 2153UT
Geomagnetic:  G1
In the BOM magnetometer data for 17 Aug, a weak (16nT) impulse 
was observed at 1425UT and a possible weak (24nT) impulse was observed 
at 1726UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 100% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.4 at 0204UT, an M1.1 at 0416UT, 
              an M1.2 at 0731UT, and an M1.3 at 2108UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

19 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.4 at 0000UT, an M1.3 at 0936UT, 
              and an M3.7 at 2152UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 105% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 2311UT, an M1.2 at 0448UT, 
              and an M1.3 at 1708UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day and after local dawn.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25% during local day and after local dawn.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day and after local dawn.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

21 Aug 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.1 at 0602UT, and an M5.1 at 2208UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Aug 
Solar:        R1 with an M1.5 at 1039UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Comment: CME arrival on 17-Aug from X1 flare/CME on 14-Aug.
G3 planetary conditions briefly observed. The Australian
regional ionosphere has been enhanced this week.

2. FORECAST (23 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST)
Solar: R1-R2. Increased risk of CME activity toward
the end of the week if solar region development continues.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 conditions. Chance of G0-G1 26-Aug and 28-Aug.

Frequencies:  
MUFs near to 20% above predicted monthly values.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts probable during the week.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au