[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (16 August 24) issued 0109 UT on 16 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri Aug 16 11:09:39 AEST 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 16 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (09 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST)
Date     09    10    11    12    13    14    15
10cm    306   291   282   272   260   248   227
AFr       9     8    23    51    12    11  (  5)
Aaus      2     3    17    54     7     4  (  2)
T       154   160   171   188   146   167   179

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

09 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 2251UT, an M1.2 at 1117UT, 
              an M1.4 at 1206UT, an M1.0 at 1243UT, an M1.0 at 
              2037UT, an M4.5 at 2123UT, and an M1.1 at 2350UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

10 Aug 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.1 at 2350UT, an M1.3 at 0102UT, 
              an M5.3 at 0237UT, and an M1.3 at 1439UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 10 Aug, a weak (9nT) impulse 
was observed at 1251UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 125% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

11 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 0031UT, an M1.6 at 0528UT, 
              and an M1.6 at 2018UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 100% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 0000UT, an M1.0 at 0849UT, 
              and an M1.2 at 2257UT
Geomagnetic:  G3
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15-45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

13 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 2257UT, an M1.1 at 1729UT, 
              an M1.3 at 2245UT, and an M4.2 at 2345UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-55% 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

14 Aug 
Solar:        R3, with an M1.3 at 2245UT, an M4.2 at 2345UT, 
              an M4.4 at 0404UT, an X1.1 at 0641UT, an M1.0 at 
              1324UT, and an M5.3 at 1549UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 100% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 0348UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 115% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 95% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (16 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels this week. Solar activity
may increase if regions AR3766 and AR3767 return to the visible disk. These
regions previously produced flares at the R3 level and are due to return on 
16 and 18-Aug respectively.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally expected this week. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 18-Aug due to the arrival of a CME associated with
an X1.1 flare first observed on 14-Aug.

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15-35% enhanced this
week. Shortwave fadeouts are probable. 

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au