[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (09 August 24) issued 0112 UT on 09 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri Aug 9 11:12:06 AEST 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 09 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (02 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST)
Date     02    03    04    05    06    07    08
10cm    247   245   241   247   270   303   336
AFr       9     9    28    10     8     8  (  8)
Aaus      4     7    27     6     2     3  (  2)
T       146   151   162   141   143   147   156

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

02 Aug 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.4 at 2308UT, an M1.0 at 0201UT, 
              an M1.0 at 0322UT, an M1.1 at 0358UT, an M7.4 at 
              0456UT, an M1.2 at 0917UT, an M1.2 at 1233UT, an 
              M1.1 at 1350UT, and an M1.5 at 1530UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% enhanced. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

03 Aug 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.3 at 0000UT, an M1.5 at 0459UT, 
              an M1.5 at 0705UT, an M1.8 at 1343UT, an M2.8 at 
              1654UT, an M1.9 at 1726UT, and an M7.3 at 1839UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

04 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.5 at 0159UT, an M1.2 at 0944UT, 
              an M1.9 at 1050UT, an M2.2 at 1515UT, and an M1.0 
              at 2211UT
Geomagnetic:  G2
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 Aug 
Solar:        R3, with an M1.0 at 2211UT, an M1.1 at 0231UT, 
              an M6.1 at 0523UT, an M1.7 at 1001UT, an X1.7 at 
              1340UT, an M1.0 at 1802UT, and an M1.2 at 1837UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 0303UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Aug 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.8 at 0230UT, an M1.1 at 0457UT, 
              an M4.5 at 1350UT, and an M5.0 at 1854UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40-50%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

08 Aug 
Solar:        R3, with an M2.1 at 0106UT, an M1.3 at 0435UT, 
              an M1.6 at 1142UT, an M1.5 at 1343UT, an X1.3 at 
              1935UT, and an M1.2 at 2251UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Comment:G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on 04-Aug. Planetary conditions briefly reached G3. 
The brief geomagnetic storm activity was associated with a 
sustained period of southward interplanetary magnetic field 
conditions.

2. FORECAST (09 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST)
Solar: 
R1-R2, chance for an isolated R3 event. Solar region AR3781,
AR3774, AR3777 and large region AR3780 have good flare potential.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 with slight chance of G1 late in the UT day on 9 Aug due to a
possible weak CME glancing blow arrival. G1-G2 during 10-11 Aug 
due to expected CME arrivals during this interval. G0 on other days.

Frequencies:  
Degraded HF conditions may be experienced during local night
hours on 10-Aug and 11-Aug in association with an expected increase
in geomagnetic activity. Southern Australian region MUFs may 
become depressed 15% early in the UT day on 11-Aug and 12-Aug. 
MUFs near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on other days.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au