[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (30 August 24) issued 0100 UT on 30 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri Aug 30 11:00:44 AEST 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 30 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (23 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST)
Date     23    24    25    26    27    28    29
10cm    242   232   233   232   221   212   204
AFr       8    12     8     4    11    30  (  8)
Aaus      3     9     2     2     7    13  (  2)
T       158   162   150   152   153   159   160

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

23 Aug 
Solar:        R2, with an M3.4 at 0341UT, an M1.0 at 0418UT, 
              an M1.7 at 1357UT, an M1.7 at 1505UT, an M1.1 at 
              1642UT, an M1.1 at 1933UT, an M3.4 at 1944UT, and 
              an M5.1 at 2012UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

24 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.6 at 0014UT, an M1.0 at 1858UT, 
              an M1.4 at 1930UT, an M1.4 at 2146UT, and an M1.7 
              at 2324UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

25 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.7 at 2324UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.4 at 1141UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 115% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

27 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 0943UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 27 Aug, a weak (11nT) impulse 
was observed at 0842UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

28 Aug 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G1
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Aug 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (30 AUGUST - 05 SEPTEMBER)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels this week.
Activity may increase if previously flare active regions 
return to the visible disk. In particular, AR3780 and AR3784
previously produced R3 level flares and may return on 30-Aug
and 05-Sep respectively. 

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected this week.

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. 

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au