[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 04 January 25 issued 2349 UT on 04 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (04 JANUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
04 Jan   133    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.1 03/2241UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M7.6    0518UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  X1.8    1248UT  probable   all    European

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 04 01 2025 2220UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      132
Jan      119
Feb      116


2. FORECAST (05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
05 Jan    85    Fair             Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values
06 Jan   100    Fair-normal      Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
07 Jan   110    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 
3 January and is current for 4-6 Jan. ASWFC HF Communications 
Warning 4 was issued on 4 January and is current for 5 Jan only. 
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04-Jan in the Australian 
region were generally depressed 15% to near predicted monthly 
values, with MUFs at Darwin enhanced by 30% during the local 
day. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. 
Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane, Canberra and Niue. MUFs 
are expected to be 15-30% depressed on 05-Jan following overnight 
G1 geomagnetic storm activity. The ionospheric depression response 
is expected to be stronger in the southern Australian region. 
MUFs are expected to be milldy depressed on 06-Jan an near normal 
on 07-Jan. Shortwave fadeouts were observed at 03/2204-04/0044UT 
and 05/0509-0618UT. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au