[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 05 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (05 JANUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
05 Jan   119    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M4.1    0239UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.1    0718UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M4.1    0936UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M2.5    1537UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Generally near predicted monthly values.
      Darwin enhanced by up to 30% local night.
      Townsville 15% depressed during the local day.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15-20% during local day.
      Perth near predicted monthly values.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
      Mild increase in absorption observed 05/00-08UT.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2220UT 04/01, Ended at 0930UT 05/01

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      132
Jan      119
Feb      116


2. FORECAST (06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
06 Jan   130    Normal           10 to 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values
07 Jan   130    Normal           10 to 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values    
08 Jan   130    Normal           10 to 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 
3 January and is current for 4-6 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 05-Jan in the Australian region were variable 
with southeast coast sites depressed 15-20%, southwest coast 
sites and northern Australian sites generally near predicted 
monthly values, with Darwin enhanced by 30% during the local 
night and Townsville 15% depressed during the local day. Spread 
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic E 
was observed at east coast Australian sites. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced as recent 
mild geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole wind stream has 
now declined. Shortwave fadeouts were observed at 05/0223-0318UT 
and 05/0710-0757UT. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au