[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 03 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (03 JANUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
03 Jan    96    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.2    1139UT  probable   all    European
  M2.3    2212UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  X1.1    2241UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% to near predicted monthly values. 
      Darwin MUFs depressed by 30% early in the UT day.
      Learmonth MUFs depressed by 30% during the local day.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% to near predicted monthly values.
      Perth MUFs depressed by 30% during the local day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      132
Jan      119
Feb      116


2. FORECAST (04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
04 Jan   100    Fair-normal      Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values
05 Jan   100    Fair-normal      Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
06 Jan   100    Fair-normal      Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 2 January 
and is current for 2-4 Jan. ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 
3 was issued on 3 January and is current for 4-6 Jan. Maximum 
usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 03-Jan in the Australian 
region were depressed 15-30% to near predicted monthly values. 
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic 
E was observed at Brisbane late in the UT day. MUFs are expected 
to be 10-15% depressed to near predicted monthly values for 04-06 
Jan due to an expected mild increase in geomagnetic activity. 
A shortwave fadeout was observed at Niue and Norfolk Island 03/2235-2310UT 
in association with the X1.1 solar flare at 03/2241UT. Shortwave 
fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au