[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 02 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (02 JANUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
02 Jan    39    Fair           

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    1740UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      132
Jan      119
Feb      116


2. FORECAST (03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
03 Jan    85    Fair             Near predicted values to 25% 
                                 depressed
04 Jan   100    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% depressed    
05 Jan    90    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% depressed   

COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 2 January 
and is current for 2-4 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
in the Australian region on UT day 2-Jan were depressed by 20-50% 
due to recent geomagnetic activity. Conditions were partially 
blacked out during local daylight hours. Spread F was common 
at southern Australian sites, particularly in Hobart. Sporadic-E 
was strong at northern sites such as Niue Island. MUfs are expected 
to continue to be depressed over 3-4 Jan but improving; further 
depressions are then possible by 5-Jan due to a pair of coronal 
holes that may induce geomagnetic activity.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au