[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 11 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 11 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (11 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
11 Sep   168    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0 10/2350UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.8    1236UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.4    1518UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.6    1726UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M2.0    1752UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30-35% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1625UT 09/09, Ended at 0410UT 10/09

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      159
Sep      117
Oct      116


2. FORECAST (12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
12 Sep   170    Normal           15 to 25% above predicted monthly 
                                 values
13 Sep   130    Fair             Near predicted monthly values    
14 Sep   150    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 100 was issued on 
11 September and is current for 11-12 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 11-Sep were 15-35% 
enhanced, with the strongest enhancements observed during local 
night hours. Ionospheric scintillation was observed at Darwin, 
Niue and Weipa over the interval 11/0837-1320UT. MUFs are expected 
to be 15-25% enhanced on 12-Sep, declining to near monthly predicted 
values on 13-Sep due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Degradations 
are possible at high latitude locations on this day. MUFs are 
expected to recover by 14-Sep, returning to near predicted monthly 
values to 15% enhanced. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au