[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 10 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 10 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (10 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
10 Sep   166    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0018UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.6    1547UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1625UT 09/09, Ended at 0410UT 10/09

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      159
Sep      117
Oct      116


2. FORECAST (11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
11 Sep   160    Normal-fair      Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
12 Sep   140    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
13 Sep   130    Fair             Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 99 was issued on 
9 September and is current for 9-11 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 10-Sep were near predicted 
monthly values to 30% enhanced, with the strongest enhancements 
observed during local night. Ionospheric scintillation was observed 
at multiple locations over the interval 10/0918-1348UT. Spread 
F was observed during local night hours at Darwin and Cocos Islands. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
by 20% until anticipated geomagnetic activity occurs on 11-Sep. 
Following geomagnetic activity MUFs are expected to be near monthly 
predicted values with the chance of degradations at higher latitudes. 
MUFs are expected to recover over 12-Sep until further geomagnetic 
activity late on 12-Sep or early on 13-Sep when degradations 
are again possible. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au