[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 09 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 09 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (09 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
09 Sep   164    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors 
  M1.0    0332UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.8    0545UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.5    0850UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.7    1027UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    1217UT  possible   lower  European
  M3.4    1708UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-45%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 09 09 2024 1625UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      159
Sep      117
Oct      116


2. FORECAST (10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
10 Sep   165    Normal-fair      15 to 25% above predicted monthly 
                                 values
11 Sep   140    Fair             Near predicted monthly values    
12 Sep   120    Fair-normal      Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 99 was issued on 
9 September and is current for 9-11 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 09-Sep were near predicted 
monthly values to 45% enhanced. Ionospheric scintillation was 
observed at Darwin over the interval 09/1306-1640UT. Spread F 
was observed during local night hours at Darwin. A minor fadeout 
impacting the lower HF frequencies was observed 09/0234-0415UT. 
MUFs are expected to be 15-25% enhanced over 10-Sep and near 
predicted monthly values on 11-12 Sep with mildly degraded conditions 
at times due to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity. 
Brief 15% depressions are possible after local dawn on 11-12-Sep 
for southern region Australia. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au