[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 12 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 12 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (12 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
12 Sep   151    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.0    0012UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.1    0404UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.2    0432UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.7    0618UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X1.3    0943UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
  M1.2    1322UT  possible   lower  European
  M6.8    1443UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.9    2219UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      159
Sep      117
Oct      116


2. FORECAST (13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
13 Sep   140    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep   120    Fair             Near predicted monthly values    
15 Sep   150    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 12-Sep were near predicted monthly values to 
15-40% enhanced. Southern Australian MUFs were 20% depressed 
after local dawn due to overnight geomagnetic activity. Strong 
spread F was observed at Hobart. Ionospheric scintillation was 
observed at Niue and Weipa over the interval 12/0622-0959UT. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% 
enhanced over 13-15 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au