[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 10 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 10 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (10 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
10 Oct   130    Fair           

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M7.7 09/2312UT  probable   lower  West Pacific
  M1.3    1201UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    1700UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M3.0    2231UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 09 10 2024 0455UT and is in progress
 and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0345UT 09/10, Ended at 0425UT 10/10

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      147
Oct      116
Nov      115


2. FORECAST (11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
11 Oct    90    Poor             20 to 40% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
12 Oct   110    Fair             Near predicted monthly values    
13 Oct   130    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 116 was issued on 
10 October and is current for 10-12 Oct. ASWFC HF Communications 
Warning 117 was issued on 10 October and is current for 11 Oct 
only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region 
on UT day 10-Oct were near predicted values to 40% depressed 
following the onset of geomagnetic activity. Polar cap absorption 
was observed at Mawson. Spread F was observed at Canberra and 
Perth during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be depressed 
by 20-40% on 11-Oct before generally recovering over 12-13 Oct. 
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au