[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 09 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 09 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (09 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
09 Oct   156    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.8    0156UT  probable   all    West Pacific
  M2.1    0426UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.3    0515UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  X1.4    1547UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 09 10 2024 0455UT and is in progress
 and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 09 10 2024 0345UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      147
Oct      116
Nov      115


2. FORECAST (10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
10 Oct   100    Fair-poor        Near predicted values to 30% 
                                 depressed
11 Oct    90    Fair             Near predicted values to 30% 
                                 depressed    
12 Oct    90    Fair             Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 30% depressed   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 114 was issued on 
8 October and is current for 8-10 Oct. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications 
Warning 115 was issued on 9 October and is current for 10-12 
Oct. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region 
on UT day 09-Oct were near predicted values to 20% enhanced. 
Polar cap absorption was observed in Mawson. Spread F was observed 
in Hobart. Scintillation was observed from 0750 to 0820 UT in 
Niue. MUFs are expected to become depressed by up to 30% over 
10-12 Oct due to multiple CME impacts expected on 10-Oct.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au