[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 11 October 24 issued 2332 UT on 11 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (11 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
11 Oct    56    Poor-fair      

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    1605UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M2.1    1633UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 30-50%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 50% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
      Absorption observed early in UT day.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0455UT 09/10, Ended at 0045UT 11/10
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0205UT 11/10, Ended at 0300UT 11/10
 and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0345UT 09/10, Ended at 0425UT 10/10

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      147
Oct      116
Nov      115


2. FORECAST (12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
12 Oct   150    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced.
13 Oct   150    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced.    
14 Oct   150    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced.   

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 115 was 
issued on 9 October and is current for 10-12 Oct. ASWFC SWF HF 
Communications Warning 116 was issued on 10 October and is current 
for 10-12 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 11-Oct were depressed 50% during the local day 
in association with geomagnetic storm activity. During local 
night hours some sites recovered whilst others remained depressed 
20-50%. In general strongly degraded HF conditions were generally 
observed on 11-Oct. Increased ionospheric absorption was observed 
in the Antarctic region early in the UT day. Ionospheric equatorial 
scintillation was observed at Niue 11/1512-1620UT. Sporadic E 
was occasionally observed at some sites and spread F was observed 
during local night hours for southern Australian region sites. 
Greatly improved HF conditions are expected for today. MUFs are 
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced 
over the 12-14 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au