[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 05 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 05 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (05 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
05 Oct   162    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2 04/2211UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.0    0012UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    0411UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.4    0828UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.1    2041UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      147
Oct      116
Nov      115


2. FORECAST (06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
06 Oct   140    Fair             Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 15%
07 Oct   125    Fair             Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 15%    
08 Oct   135    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 111 was issued on 
4 October and is current for 4-6 Oct. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications 
Warning 112 was issued on 4 October and is current for 4-6 Oct. 
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on 
UT day 05-Oct were near predicted values to 25% enhanced. Range 
spread was observed in Cocos Islands during local night hours. 
Scintillation was observed between 0817 and 1410 UT in Darwin, 
Weipa and Niue. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values 
to 15% depressed over 06-07 Oct due to expected geomagnetic activity, 
tending back towards neutral by 08-Oct. Scintillation is possible 
over this period.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au