[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 04 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 04 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (04 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
04 Oct   156    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1 03/2328UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M4.0    0455UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.1    0521UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.2    1103UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.2    2105UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.2    2211UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      147
Oct      116
Nov      115


2. FORECAST (05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
05 Oct   120    Fair-poor        Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 5 to 15%
06 Oct   100    Fair-poor        Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 25%    
07 Oct    90    Fair-poor        Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 35%   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 111 was issued on 
4 October and is current for 4-6 Oct. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications 
Warning 112 was issued on 4 October and is current for 4-6 Oct. 
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on 
UT day 4-Oct were near predicted values to 30% enhanced. Range 
spread was observed in Cocos Islands during local night hours. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values in the beginning 
of UT day 5-Oct, however are expected to become depressed by 
up to 15% upon the commencement of an expected geomagnetic storm. 
MUFs are likely to become progressively worse over 6-7 Oct due 
to expected prolonged geomagnetic storm conditions.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au