[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 03 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 03 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (03 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
03 Oct   152    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0234UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.5    0828UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X9.0    1218UT  probable   all    European

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      147
Oct      116
Nov      115


2. FORECAST (04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
04 Oct   120    Poor             Near predicted monthly values
05 Oct   100    Poor             Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 5 to 15%    
06 Oct   100    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 5 to 15%   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 109 was issued on 
1 October and is current for 2-4 Oct. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications 
Warning 110 was issued on 3 October and is current for 4-5 Oct. 
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 03-Oct were near 
predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced, with the strongest 
enhancements observed in the southern Australian region and during 
local night. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night. 
Ionospheric scintillation was observed between 02/1158UT to 02/1418UT 
at Darwin. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to 15% enhanced for the first half of 04-Oct. Anticipated geomagnetic 
activity over 04-06 Oct is expected to produce degraded conditions 
over this period. MUFs on 05-06 Oct are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values to 5-15% depressed. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au