[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 02 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 02 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (02 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
02 Oct   151    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X7.1 01/2220UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.2    0239UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.0    0516UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.6    0538UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.1    0624UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M3.2    1338UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.4    2016UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M3.2    2049UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      147
Oct      116
Nov      115


2. FORECAST (03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
03 Oct   150    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
04 Oct   115    Poor-fair        Near predicted monthly values    
05 Oct   125    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 109 was issued on 
1 October and is current for 2-4 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 02-Oct were near predicted monthly values to 
30% enhanced, with the strongest enhancements observed in the 
southern Australian region. Ionospheric scintillation was observed 
between 02/1158UT to 02/1518 UT at Darwin. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on 03-Oct 
with the chance of mild depressions late in the UT day. MUFs 
expected to be near predicted monthly values on 04-05 Oct with 
depressions possible especially at higher latitudes due to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au