[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (16 January 26) issued 0134 UT on 16 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 16 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (09 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY)
Date     09    10    11    12    13    14    15
10cm    117   114   111   113   117   127   139
AFr       9    15    20    14     9     5  ( 10)
Aaus     10    21    20     8     5     5  ( 10)
T       103   100    19    44    50    89    87

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

09 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

10 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G1
In the BOM magnetometer data for 10 Jan, a weak (15nT) impulse 
was observed at 2016UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M3.3 at 2314UT
Geomagnetic:  G1
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

12 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G1
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 50% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

13 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.6 at 2033UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (16 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at R1, with chance of R2 over the forecasting
period.
Flare activity may continue from Region AR4341 and AR4343 with both showing
magnetic
complexity and spot development.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected during 16-17 Jan. G1 geomagnetic
conditions with a chance of G2 are expected over 18-21 Jan 
as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective. G0 conditions are expected on
22-Jan.

Frequencies:  
MUFs near predicted monthly values on 16-17 Jan. MUFs expected to become
depressed 15-20%
on 18-21 Jan due to geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. 


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au