[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (02 January 26) issued 0050 UT on 02 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 02 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (26 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY)
Date     26    27    28    29    30    31    01
10cm    166   178   188   196   182   171   169
AFr       6     5     7     9     5     7  ( 16)
Aaus      5     5     7     7     6     9  ( 12)
T       128   124   124   120   137   138   130

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

26 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

27 Dec 
Solar:        R2, with an M5.1 at 0150UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.3 at 2113UT, and an M4.2 at 
              2239UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 0651UT and an M2.2 at 
              00002UT.
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Dec 
Solar:        R0 
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

31 Dec 
Solar:        R2, with an M7.1 at 1351UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (02 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY)
Solar: 
R0-R1 with the possibility of an isolated R2 flare.

Geomagnetic:  
G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected from the second half of 
the UT day on 02-Jan and into the first half of the UT day 03-Jan
due to the anticipated glancing blow arrival of the M7/CME observed 
on 31-Dec. Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence patterns suggest that G1 
conditions are possible on 7-8 Jan. G0 conditions are expected on 
other days of the week.

Frequencies:  
Southern Australian region MUFs are expected to be 20-30% depressed
after local dawn on 03-Jan due to anticipated geomagnetic activity
from an indirect CME arrival. In addition MUFs may be 15% depressed 
on 08-Jan due to more mild recurrent geomagnetic activity. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on other 
days of the week. Isolated minor fadeouts are possible.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au