[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (16 May 25) issued 0053 UT on 16 May 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 16 MAY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (09 MAY - 15 MAY)
Date     09    10    11    12    13    14    15
10cm    136   134   126   116   117   122   119
AFr      11    14    13     0     9    12  ( 11)
Aaus     11     6    11     4     5    12  (  7)
T        98    95    89    87    82    89    88

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

09 May 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

10 May 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during after local dawn and during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

11 May 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

12 May 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.9 at 0001UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

13 May 
Solar:        R3, with an X1.2 at 1538UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 May 
Solar:        R3, with an M5.3 at 0325UT, an M1.2 at 0745UT, 
              an X2.7 at 0825UT, an M7.7 at 1119UT, and an 
              M4.7 at 1811UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 May 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.1 at 1721UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (16 MAY - 22 MAY)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels this week
mainly due to the flare potential of AR4087. 

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 16-17 May, increasing
to G0-G1 for the remainder of the week due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects from a southern hemisphere coronal
hole. 

Frequencies:  
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% depressed this week, with depressions more likely
from 18-May onwards. Shortwave fadeouts are probable. 

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au