[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (17 January 25) issued 0046 UT on 17 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 17 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (10 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY)
Date     10    11    12    13    14    15    16
10cm    157   156   158   160   166   174   208
AFr      11     5     6     9    10    11  ( 11)
Aaus      8     4     6     9     9    12  ( 12)
T       137   126   153   134   110   124   110

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

10 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Generally near predicted monthly values.
      Some sites depressed 15% early in the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      

12 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-50%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Darwin enhanced by 20-70% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Perth enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
   

16 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 15-20% early in UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Comment: depressed ionospheric conditions late in the UT day 
on 15-Jan and early in the UT day 16-Jan following mild overnight 
geomagnetic activity induced by a broad coronal hole. Southern 
Australian region MUFs are currently variable with Canberra and 
Hobart MUFs currently 20% depressed and Perth MUFs are currently 
15% enhanced. Canberra and Hobart MUFs are expected to recover.

 
2. FORECAST (17 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY)
Solar:
R1, chance R2. There is an increased chance of
solar flare activity in the coming week due to
three solar regions currently exhibiting magnetic
complexity and growth. 

Geomagnetic:  
G0, chance G1 due to a coronal hole wind stream
for 17-19 Jan, then G0, with a chance of CME induced 
activity later in the week if solar regions continue
to develop.

Frequencies:  
Mostly near predicted monthly values, with depressions 
of 15% after local dawn for the southern Australian region 
during the period 17-19 Jan, in association with the mild
geomagnetic activity from the coronal hole wind stream. 
Increased chance for shortwave fadeouts this week.



For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au