[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (10 January 25) issued 0101 UT on 10 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri Jan 10 12:01:59 AEDT 2025

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 10 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (03 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY)
Date     03    04    05    06    07    08    09
10cm    200   209   169   172   168   160   162
AFr       7    21    12    13     8     6  ( 10)
Aaus     10    25    12     9    11     5  ( 10)
T        96   133   119   159   138   134   163

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

03 Jan 
Solar:        R3, with an X1.2 at 1139UT, an M2.3 at 2212UT, 
              and an X1.1 at 2241UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% to near predicted monthly values. 
      Darwin MUFs depressed by 30% early in the UT day.
      Learmonth MUFs depressed by 30% during the local day.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% to near predicted monthly values.
      Perth MUFs depressed by 30% during the local day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

04 Jan 
Solar:        R3, with an M2.3 at 2212UT, an X1.1 at 2241UT, 
              an M7.6 at 0518UT, an X1.8 at 1248UT, and an M2.1 
              at 2326UT
Geomagnetic:  G1
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

05 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.1 at 2326UT, an M4.1 at 0239UT, 
              an M2.1 at 0718UT, an M4.1 at 0936UT, and an M2.5 
              at 1537UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Generally near predicted monthly values.
      Darwin enhanced by up to 30% local night.
      Townsville 15% depressed during the local day.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15-20% during local day.
      Perth near predicted monthly values.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
      Mild increase in absorption observed 05/00-08UT.

06 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M3.1 at 0152UT, an M1.4 at 0350UT, 
              and an M4.8 at 1624UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 2305UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 0026UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (10 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels this week. 

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected this week. 

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. 

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au