[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (07 February 25) issued 0037 UT on 07 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri Feb 7 11:37:54 AEDT 2025

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 07 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (31 JANUARY - 06 FEBRUARY)
Date     31    01    02    03    04    05    06
10cm    207   188   216   220   212   191   188
AFr       5    21    18     4     4     6  (  8)
Aaus      8    20    14     2     4     7  (  5)
T       158   127   111   110   141   162   159

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

31 Jan 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.0 at 0610UT, an M6.7 at 1406UT, 
              and an M1.8 at 2023UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 Feb 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.5 at 1319UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

02 Feb 
Solar:        R2, with an M3.0 at 1012UT, an M1.4 at 1250UT, 
              an M5.1 at 1404UT, an M1.2 at 1513UT, an M2.7 at 
              1533UT, and an M4.1 at 2324UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

03 Feb 
Solar:        R2, with an M4.1 at 2324UT, an M1.0 at 0347UT, 
              an M8.8 at 0358UT, an M3.1 at 0547UT, an M2.5 at 
              0744UT, an M1.4 at 0913UT, an M6.1 at 1318UT, an 
              M4.3 at 1836UT, an M1.4 at 2112UT, and an M1.4 
              at 2328UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

04 Feb 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.4 at 2328UT, an M1.2 at 0050UT, 
              an M2.6 at 0148UT, an M1.2 at 0518UT, an M4.7 at 
              1121UT, and an M3.2 at 1313UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 Feb 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 0315UT, and an M2.7 at 
              0750UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 Feb 
Solar:        R2, with an M7.6 at 1104UT, and an M2.3 at 2327UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (07 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels this week.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected this week. An equatorial
coronal hole currently crossing the central meridian may induce
mildly elevated geomagnetic activity over 10-11 Feb. 

Frequencies:  
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced. Shortwave fadeouts are probable. 

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au