[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (01 November 24) issued 0106 UT on 01 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri Nov 1 12:06:26 AEDT 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 01 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (25 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER)
Date     25    26    27    28    29    30    31
10cm    209   238   246   255   266   270   270
AFr       2    11     8    11    10    10  (  6)
Aaus      2    11     6    12     8    10  (  7)
T       151   154   128   139   124   130   136

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

25 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 0733UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Oct 
Solar:        R3, with an M9.5 at 0623UT, and an X1.8 at 0722UT, and
              an M2.2 at 1150UT, an M2.8 at 1206UT and an M1.6 at
              1416UT.
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 26 Oct, a weak (18nT) impulse 
was observed at 1619UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

27 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.8 at 2324UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased ionospheric 
      absorption observed at Mawson and Casey.

28 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.3 at 0409UT, an M1.2 at 1444UT 
              and an M4.2 at 1628UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 28 Oct, a weak (25nT) impulse 
was observed at 0447UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

29 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 1633UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

30 Oct 
Solar:        R2, with an M7.2 at 2053UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced at Darwin.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed
      at Casey and Davis of approximately 1dB as event declines.

31 Oct 
Solar:        R3, with an M1.0 at 0252UT, an M1.0 at 0330UT, 
              an M1.4 at 0937UT, an M2.4 at 1254UT, an M1.2 at 1359UT, 
              an M1.0 at 1907UT, an M4.6 at 2110UT, and an X2.0 at 2120UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Absorption observed first half of UT day then easing.

Comment: Frequent solar flare activity was observed this week. 
Earlier in the week the stronger solar flares were produced
by solar regions AR3869 and AR3872 which are now in the
southwest solar quadrant. Later in the week solar region 
AR3878 contributed an R3 flare. This region is the northeast 
solar quadrant and has potential for further strong flares.
A CME arrival was observed in solar wind data on 28-Oct but
no significant geomagnetic storm activity followed. The high latitude/
polar cap ionospheric region was impacted by increased absorption 
due to a S2 solar radiation storm which peaked at 28/1350UT with
a peak solar proton flux of 364PFU, with Antarctic riometer absorption 
around just over 2dB. Shortwave fadeouts impacted lower HF frequencies
of communication in the Australian region this week.

2. FORECAST (01 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER)
Solar: 
R1-R2, with the chance of further isolated R3 flares.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 conditions, with 27 day recurrence patterns suggesting 
the chance of isolated G1 periods over 05-07 Nov. There is 
an increased risk of CME induced geomagnetic storm activity 
this week. 

Frequencies:  
MUFs near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced with
the chance of mild 15% depressions after local dawn on 06-07 Nov
for the southern Australian region only. Shortwave fadeouts are 
likely this week.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au