[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (27 December 24) issued 0034 UT on 27 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 27 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (20 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER)
Date     20    21    22    23    24    25    26
10cm    184   195   223   238   259   253   256
AFr      10    13    15    11     9     5  (  5)
Aaus      8    12    12    10     8     5  (  1)
T       134   127   101   114   132   141   151

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

20 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.1 at 0726UT, and an M2.5 at 
              1118UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

21 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.9 at 0039UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 0410UT, an M1.1 at 1414UT, 
              and an M1.1 at 2049UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Dec 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.0 at 0231UT, an M1.0 at 0629UT, 
              and an M9.0 at 1112UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

24 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M4.8 at 0019UT, an M1.0 at 0211UT, 
              an M4.1 at 0841UT, an M1.1 at 1410UT, an M1.3 at 
              1634UT, an M1.1 at 1824UT, an M1.0 at 2029UT, and 
              an M1.2 at 2234UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

25 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 2234UT, an M2.8 at 0430UT, 
              and an M4.9 at 0449UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Dec 
Solar:        R2, with an M3.0 at 0030UT, and an M7.3 at 0315UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (27 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY)
Solar: 
R1-R2 level solar activity is expected for 27-Dec to 
02-Jan, with a chance of R3 level flaring due to the
large number of complex sunspot regions on the solar
disk.

Geomagnetic:  
Predominantly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
for the week 27-Dec to 02-Jan. No CME impacts are 
currently forecast.

Frequencies:  
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced for the week 
27-Dec to 02-Jan.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au