[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (20 December 24) issued 0124 UT on 20 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 20 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (13 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER)
Date     13    14    15    16    17    18    19
10cm    164   171   172   167   170   174   175
AFr       2     8     9    11    20    12  (  9)
Aaus      3     7     9     9    34    12  (  6)
T       151   141   113   115   121    63   111

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

13 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 0318UT, an M2.1 at 1124UT, 
              and an M1.0 at 1424UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M3.1 at 2024UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

16 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G1
In the BOM magnetometer data for 17 Dec, a weak (23nT) impulse 
was observed at 0916UT, a weak (36nT) impulse was observed at 
1227UT and a weak (40nT) impulse was observed at 1502UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

18 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.6 at 1038UT, an M3.8 at 1534UT, 
              and an M1.7 at 1900UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (20 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER)
Solar: 
R0-R1, chance R2 with frequency increasing early in week

Geomagnetic:  
G0

Frequencies:  
MUFs near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced most of the week.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au