[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (22 September 23) issued 0100 UT on 22 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 22 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (15 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER)
Date     15    16    17    18    19    20    21
10cm    139   140   145   155   166   156   168
AFr       7     5    14    21    38    15  (  8)
Aaus      5     4    11    18    24     9  (  9)
T        97   100   102   102    66    99   105

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

15 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.7 at 2229UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.9 at 0050UT, and an M3.4 at 
              0538UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 17 Sep, a weak (15nT) impulse 
was observed at 0232UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 18 Sep, a weak (17nT) impulse 
was observed at 1329UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 0355UT, an M1.8 at 0938UT, 
              and an M4.0 at 2014UT
Geomagnetic:  G1
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 40% over the UT day.

20 Sep 
Solar:        R2, with an M8.2 at 1419UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

21 Sep 
Solar:        R2, with an M8.7 at 1254UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Comment: Disturbed conditions on 19-Sep due to CME arrival
from an erupting solar filament on 16-Sep. The two M8 class 
flares were produced by solar region AR3435 and further flare 
activity is likely from this region. A number of solar regions 
are currently showing development.
 
2. FORECAST (22 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER)
Solar: R1-R2 chance of isolated R3 event.

Geomagnetic:  Chance of G1 periods 23-Sep,G0 on
other days. 

Frequencies:  
Briefly depressed after local dawn on 23-24 Sep,for the
southern Australian region. MUFs near predicted monthly 
values on other days. Fadeouts likely on daylight HF
circuits.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au