[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (15 September 23) issued 0135 UT on 15 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 15 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (08 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER)
Date     08    09    10    11    12    13    14
10cm    161   161   164   176   154   143   145
AFr       8    12     6     8    17    17  ( 12)
Aaus      3     5     2     5    18     9  (  9)
T       104   118   110   105   116    86    95

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

08 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

10 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

11 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.3 at 0128UT, an M1.1 at 0407UT, 
              and an M1.1 at 1449UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

12 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.7 at 0425UT, an M1.7 at 0429UT, 
              and an M2.5 at 0707UT
Geomagnetic:  G1
In the BOM magnetometer data for 12 Sep, a weak (12nT) impulse 
was observed at 1120UT and a weak (18nT) impulse was observed 
at 1217UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

13 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0 Australian region, G1 planetary
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

14 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.4 at 0745UT, an M1.9 at 1931UT, 
              and an M2.5 at 2126UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 55% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (15 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER)
Solar: 
R0-R1 throughout the week, with a slight chance of R2.

Geomagnetic:  
G0, with a chance of G1 on 15-Sep. G1, with a chance
of G2 on 16-Sep, G1-G2 on 17-Sep, G0-G1 on 18-Sep. 
G0 19-21 Sep.

Frequencies:  
Depressions possible over 16-18 Sep, especially at higher
latitudes. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly
values for 19-21 Sep.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au