[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (29 September 23) issued 0128 UT on 29 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 29 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (22 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER)
Date     22    23    24    25    26    27    28
10cm    176   173   174   170   165   156   148
AFr       7     9    17    15    26    12  (  6)
Aaus      7     6    14    18    18    14  (  2)
T       109   112   113   105   129   113   107

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

22 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 0337UT, an M1.4 at 1624UT, 
              and an M1.9 at 2300UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.9 at 2300UT, and an M1.5 at 
              2043UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

24 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 0307UT, an M1.9 at 0314UT, 
              an M4.4 at 0328UT, and an M1.0 at 1500UT
Geomagnetic:  G1
In the BOM magnetometer data for 24 Sep, a weak (26nT) impulse 
was observed at 2041UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

25 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0, with isolated G1 periods at some sites
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 40% over the UT day.

26 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G1
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

27 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Sep 
Solar:        R0, with an M1.3 at 0907UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (29 SEPTEMBER - 05 OCTOBER)
Solar: 
R0-R1 with a slight chance for R2.

Geomagnetic:  
Mostly G0 with a slight chance for G1 on 29-Sep.

Frequencies:  
MUFs near predicted monthly values to 10-20% enhanced.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au