[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (21 November 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 21 NOVEMBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (14 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER)
Date     14    15    16    17    18    19    20
10cm     99    98   104   121   144   155   175
AFr      21    21    32    21    18    12 (105)
Aaus     24    32    31    21    16     9 ( 85)
T        -1    35    40    50    53    93    48

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

14 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 10 to 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of degradation over the UT day.


15 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Slightly below predicted monthly values during 
      local day, briefly enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of degradation over the UT day. 


16 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values over 
      the UT day, with extended periods of disturbance.


17 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 0134UT, and an M4/1N at 0905UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
      with localised extended periods of disturbance.


18 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 0139UT, an M3/2N at 0752UT,
              an M3 at 0831UT, and an M4 at 1011UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
      with extended local periods of disturbance.


19 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1N at 0401UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


20 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an M1.4 at 0214UT, an M9.6 at 0747UT,
	      and an  M5.8 at 2353UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Severe Storm Levels 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values for the first
      half of the UT day followed by depressions of
      15-30% and greater.


 
2. FORECAST (21 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER)
Solar: Moderate to high

Geomagnetic:  Mostly active with Storm level intervals possible.

Frequencies:   Possible depressions of 15-30% and greater at times.
	       SWF's probable.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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