[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (28 November 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 28 NOVEMBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (21 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER)
Date     21    22    23    24    25    26    27
10cm    177   176   178   177   171   171   175
AFr      18    14    13     7     9     4 (  5)
Aaus     43    21    17    11    16     7 (  6)
T       -45    96    54    95    91   114   120

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

21 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an M5.8/2B at 2353UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values 
      since local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values 
      since local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15-30% over the UT day,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values 
      since local dawn.

22 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted montly values to
      depressed 15-30% at times.

23 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

24 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day 
      with periods of depressions and degradations.

25 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values for most of the UT day.

27 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet on most locations. Isolated unsettled and 
              active periods recorded at high latitudes. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (28 NOVEMBER - 04 DECEMBER)
Solar: Low to moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet on 28 Nov., quiet to unsettled
		on 29 and 30 Nov., Mostly quiet from 01 to 04 December.

Frequencies:  Minor depressions possible on 29 and 30 November, 
		otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs probable early 
		in week.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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