[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (14 November 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 14 NOVEMBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (07 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER)
Date     07    08    09    10    11    12    13
10cm     91    93    93    95    96    99   102
AFr       6     7    20    15    39    20 ( 25)
Aaus      7    11    19    22    34    19 ( 33)
T        94    90    72    33    24    19    27

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

07 Nov 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced early in UT day, then.
      near predicted monthly values.
      Some Spread F observed.


08 Nov 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


09 Nov 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values first half UT day.
      Blanketing sporadic E observed at Macquarie Island.
      Depressed 15% late in UT day.



10 Nov 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values 
      over the UT day.  Spread F and blanketing sporadic 
      E observed at some sites.


11 Nov 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1/SF at 1351UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 20% to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


12 Nov 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night and after
      local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.


13 Nov 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1.6 at 0501UT, and an M1.4 at 0929UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of degradation over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (14 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER)
Solar:        Moderate to high. Old active region 484, returning as region 
	      501, has good potential for further major flare activity. 

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Unsettled to Active with Active to Minor storm intervals
              possible. A large coronal hole will influence geomagnetic 
	      activity for the first part of the week. There is a possibility
	      of further disturbance due to anticipated flare activity.

Frequencies:  MUFs generally near normal at low latitudes.
	      For mid to high latitudes:
	      Depressed 15 to 30% on 14-18 Nov. 
              Depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 20-Nov,  otherwise 
	      MUFs near normal. 
	      SWFs probable (all latitudes).

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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