[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (07 November 03)
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 7 12:10:48 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED ON 07 NOVEMBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SUMMARY (31 OCTOBER - 06 NOVEMBER)
Date 31 01 02 03 04 05 06
10cm 249 210 190 167 168 114 98
AFr 73 16 11 15 20 4 ( 12)
Aaus 112 18 15 10 31 6 ( 11)
T 11 88 63 66 101 99 87
Solar: Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic: Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies: Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies
31 Oct
Solar: moderate, with an M2 at 0433UT, and an M1/SF at 0616UT
Geomagnetic: Active to Severe Storm Levels
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values with mild to moderated
depressions during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event ended, increased absorption observed.
01 Nov
Solar: moderate, with an M1 at 0852UT, an M1/SF at 1751UT,
and an M3/1N at 2238UT
Geomagnetic: Unsettled to Active
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day with periods
of significant depressions and degradations.
02 Nov
Solar: high, with an M1 at 1247UT, an X8.3/2B at 1725UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Active
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
03 Nov
Solar: high, with an X2.7/2B at 0130UT, an X3.9/2F at 0955UT,
and an M3/SF at 1532UT
Geomagnetic: Mostly quiet to unsettled.
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to deppressed upto 20%
during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
04 Nov
Solar: high, with an M2 at 0556UT, an M3 at 1022UT, an M1 at 1349UT,
and an X17.4/3B (saturated detector X28 est) at 1953UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Major Storm
A moderate (87nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0626UT on
04 Nov.
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
05 Nov
Solar: high, with an M1/SF at 0241UT, and an M5.3/SF at 1052UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
06 Nov
Solar: very low
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Minor Storm
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
COMMENT: Severe storm obsevred 31 October due to coronal mass
ejection. Also, major flare and coronal mass ejection observed
on 04 Nov. Flare location was on western solar limb of the
Sun which meant the Earth only received a glancing blow from
this major event. The first of the recently active solar regions
are due back on 14 Nov. The very flare active region that produced
the major flare activity is due back 18 Nov. Assuming the region
do not decay on the backside solar transit. The proton event
that is still in progress (associated with the major X17 flare
just above event thresholds and is expected to end today).
Proton events impact transpolar HF circuits.
2. FORECAST (07 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER)
Solar: very low
Geomagnetic: Some active conditions early in UT day on 07 Nov,
following arrival of glancing blow from CME associated
with the saturated X17 flare. Then mostly Quiet to Unsettled
until 10 Nov, when recurrence suggests a broad period
(possibly extending to 18 Nov) of active geomagnetic conditions
with brief minor storm periods can be expected. Activity due
to a solar coronal hole wind stream.
Frequencies: depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 07-Nov, then
near normal. Mild depressions likely for southern Aus/NZ region after
10 Nov in association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity.
PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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