[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (12 December 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 12 DECEMBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (05 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER)
Date     05    06    07    08    09    10    11
10cm    112   109    92    94    92    89    86
AFr      21    14     7    20    17    24 ( 30)
Aaus     34    18    12    33    20    28 (N/A)
T       108    60    46    38    32    42     2

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

05 Dec 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


06 Dec 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1 at 1120UT, and an M2 at 1546UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Degraded conditions second half of UT day.


07 Dec 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local danw.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Blanketing sporadic E observed.


08 Dec 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly 
      values over the UT day.


09 Dec 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.


10 Dec 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 10-20% over the UT day.


11 Dec 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Active to minor storm 
Frequencies:  
15 to 30% below predicted monthly values


 
2. FORECAST (12 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER)
Solar:        Low to moderate. Newly numbered region 521 appears
	      to be the return of old region 501 which produced a 
	      number of M-class flares on its last rotation. There
	      has been little development or activity from this region
	      up to report issue. 

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Unsettled with Storm level intervals possible. At
	      report issue a high speed coronal hole wind stream is 
	      persisting, causing extended periods of elevated 
	      geomagnetic activity. This wind stream should decline 
	      in the first half of the week.

Frequencies:  Depressed 20 to 30% on 12-Dec, depressed 15 to 20% on 
	      13-15 Dec,depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 
	      18-Dec,  otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs possible.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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